As the 2022 midterm elections approach, those of us in the terminally online/Zoomer populist sect of the right have become taken with a number of Republican primary candidates, including:
Blake Masters in the Arizona U.S. Senate Primary
J.D. Vance in Ohio
Joe Kent in Washington’s 3rd Congressional District
Patrick Witt in Georgia’s 10th
Robby Starbuck in Tennessee’s 5th
Andrew McCarthy in New York’s 24th
Anthony Sabatini in Florida’s 7th
Jeremy Hunt in Georgia’s 2nd,
Ian Smith in New Jersey’s 3rd.
There are more than the ones on this list, to be certain, but these listed candidates encapsulate the energy and spirit of the emerging populist conservative movement in the Republican Party.
Alas, we don’t live on the internet. As such, we really don’t have a proper gauge of these candidates’ momentum. And that’s the problem. These candidates are popular with our corner of Twitter, but Twitter clout doesn’t translate to real-world support. Sure, Vance, Masters, and Kent get a lot of free airtime by appearing on Tucker Carlson’s show, but Tucker’s base is mostly younger people, who aren’t necessarily primary voters.
So what are our populist champions doing to court real primary voters, like the 68-year-old retiree who watches Fox News during the day but Jeopardy and NCIS at night, or the 56-year-old contractor who catches the news during his lunch hour or coffee break at the local diner? As of the publishing of this piece, there are no TV ads from Vance that I can find, only a few from his PAC. Masters has put out some excellent video ads that really maximize his soft-spoken personality, but they’re long-form and made to run on YouTube videos or other internet content. Vance and Masters have a lot of fundraising momentum, and to be sure that’s an indicator of grassroots participation, but other than that, what?
The only candidate currently in good shape according to reputable polling is Kent, who is polling in second place and well ahead of incumbent Jamie Herrera-Beutler, in Washington’s “jungle primary” system. Masters is still behind Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich in polls. Vance has been lagging in recent polls. Trucking executive (and admittedly handsome consolation prize) Mike Collins is trouncing Witt in a recent poll of Georgia-10.
Other candidates are caught up in difficult circumstances, through no fault of their own. Sabatini is running in a crowded Republican primary. Smith and Hunt are running in districts that favor Democratic incumbents. Starbuck is now running against Morgan Ortagus, the former State Department spokeswoman who comes wrapped with a pre-emptive endorsement from Trump simply for being a pretty lady on Fox News and schmoozing him. Conservative pundits can say it doesn’t matter, that Robby will win anyway, but is that really the case?
Trump’s endorsement is a key piece in many of the places these candidates are running in, and while he’s shelled it out to establishment types like Ortagus and David Perdue months out from primary Election Day, simply for saying the right things, he has yet to give endorsements to many of the people who want to support and advance the America First agenda. Masters served on Trump’s 2016 transition team, and Trump called him out at a recent rally in Arizona, but he has yet to pull the trigger. Vance is the most likely candidate to win Trump’s endorsement in Ohio, considering that he thinks Josh Mandel is “f***in weird”; Mike Gibbons is trying to keep Trump at arms’ length, and lacks the America First/populist bona fides anyway; and Jane Timken is corrupt, a veiled anti-Trumper, and somehow less charismatic than Martha McSally. Yet still, Trump has yet to make a move, in a state he won by 8 points and still carries massive sway in. Now to be fair to President the Donald, he did endorse Kent, and good on him for that, but he needs to do more to pick out and lift up candidates who are going to back the populist agenda.
At this point, there’s only one candidate I’m confident will actually have electoral success, and that’s Kent. More than likely, he’ll advance to the general and likely win election in a ruby-red district. Masters can win with a Trump endorsement, and it’s a strong possibility that he’ll do both. Vance is in the strongest position to win Trump’s endorsement, and in Ohio, he’s basically a shoo-in. With enough support, Starbuck and Sabatini can win their primaries and win in newly-redrawn red districts. Smith can probably win his primary on notoriety and name recognition, but he’s in an uphill battle in the general election. Witt is probably going to go down in the primary. And while I want to believe in Hunt and McCarthy, I don’t know enough about them to make a judgement call.
All of this being said, It’s early yet. The true “primary season” doesn’t begin in earnest until very late March/early to mid-April, and our populist champions have time to correct their shortcomings and take pole position in their particular races. There are more than a few forces standing against them, but the wind is at their backs, and if they’re willing and able to catch it, they can ride it all the way to victory, in a midterm environment bordering on a genuine political realignment. But to do that, “our guys” need to get off the internet and into the real world. So do their supporters.
If you’re reading this, and you live in one of these districts or states, get out there and support your candidate. Volunteer to serve on their campaigns. Donate. Spread the word to your friends and family. Go to an event. Be a part of the groundswell. And even if your preferred candidate isn’t on this list, go find someone who is going to make your voice heard, and go be a part of what everybody knows is coming.
If we as a movement want to put our champions in the People’s House, we first need to break out of the birdhouse.